Cases: Pasadena reported 12 new COVID cases on January 19th. There were no new fatalities. To date, Pasadena has seen 39,063 cases among our population of about 142,000 and 440 deaths due to the disease.
On January 19th, Los Angeles County reported 1,502 new cases and 31 deaths due to COVID.
In positive sign, L.A. avoids spike in COVID cases-Unlike previous two winters, post-holiday wave of infections does not materialize. By Luke Money and Rong-Gong Lin II for the LA Times.
In a continuing sign of improvements in coronavirus case counts and hospitalizations, Los Angeles County on Thursday officially entered the low COVID-19 community level, indicating that the pandemic is not exerting undue stress on the local healthcare system.
Recent metrics illustrate a “very different January than expected,” a top health official said this week, with continued steady improvements in data instead of a feared post-holiday spike.
Though some figures may be affected by lags in data over the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday weekend, the county has seen marked improvement in its pandemic metrics. And with the winter holidays behind us, it’s increasingly apparent that a much-discussed double COVID wave fueled by gatherings and travel has not materialized.
There are a number of possible reasons. Some people who were infected may have had mild symptoms or none at all, so they didn’t test. Others may have used an at-home kit to confirm their infection, the results of which are not always reported.
It’s also likely many residents remain well-protected, either because they recently were vaccinated or recovered from a coronavirus infection.
Behavioral changes — such as moving gatherings outside, testing before events, wearing a mask in indoor public settings and doubling down on handwashing and other health hygiene efforts — also may have played a role.
L.A. County health officials urged residents returning to work or school post-holidays to mask up for at least 10 days in a bid to stunt potential spread. Ferrer has said she thinks expanded masking, even on a temporary basis, can play a pivotal role in tamping down transmission.
However it happened, it’s apparent this sustained downturn is not merely the byproduct of data haziness.
Even case counts have dropped. For the week that ended Thursday, L.A. County was reporting an average of 1,095 coronavirus cases a day. On a per capita basis, that’s 76 cases a week for every 100,000 residents — a rate that’s considered “substantial” but no longer “high.” It’s the first time since mid-November the case rate in L.A. County has dropped from the “high” rate.
The case rate has fallen 41% from the prior week, although it’s likely some of that dramatic decline is due to delayed reporting over the MLK weekend.
The low COVID-19 community level indicates that the burden of the pandemic on hospitals is relatively mild.
L.A. County was one of 14 California counties to transition into the low COVID-19 community level Thursday. In Southern California, Ventura County made the same transition, and elsewhere were Alameda, Contra Costa, Fresno, Kern, Sonoma, Marin, Butte, Madera, Kings, Humboldt, Tehama and Glenn counties.
Elsewhere in Southern California, San Diego, Orange and Imperial counties remained in the medium level, and Riverside, San Bernardino, Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties remained in the low COVID-19 community level.
With this week’s update, 71% of Californians now live in counties with a low COVID-19 community level. For the prior week, 28% of Californians did so.
The number of coronavirus-positive patients hospitalized statewide has plummeted since the year began. As of Wednesday, 3,372 such patients were hospitalized statewide, the lowest since late November and a 26% decrease from two weeks ago. Figures include both those admitted specifically for COVID-19 and those who test positive incidentally after seeking care for another reason.
The peak number of coronavirus-positive hospitalizations this winter was 4,648 on Jan. 3. That’s a little less than the summer peak of 4,843, set July 26.
If there’s no significant resurgence of COVID-19 later this winter, it will be the first time since the pandemic began that a fall-and-winter wave was less severe than the preceding summer’s, in terms of hospitalizations.
Modeling from the California Department of Public Health also estimates that the spread of COVID-19 is probably decreasing statewide and has been trending downward or stable for the last month.
L.A. County mirrors the statewide trends. The 918 coronavirus-positive patients hospitalized as of Wednesday is down 29% from two weeks ago.
The county’s fall-and-winter hospitalization peak came Dec. 8, when 1,308 coronavirus-positive patients were in the hospital. That was also slightly less than the summer peak of 1,329.
The state of the virus from the New York Times: By Jonathan Wolfe-It’s a confusing time in the pandemic.
For those of us who track the virus, we’re used to looking at a bunch of signals and trying to discern where things are headed. But over time, those signals have gotten more complicated — especially as some states have begun reporting their Covid data less frequently or reliably.
One thing seems likely: This winter will not look like last year, when Omicron drove up cases, hospitalizations and deaths into the stratosphere — an anomaly that some experts say we may never see again. Instead, the winter of 2023 in the U.S. will likely be defined by the strength of XBB.1.5, a highly contagious and immune- evasive Omicron subvariant that’s gaining ground across the country.
Today, we’re taking a look at what the Covid data is telling us, and the forces that may shape the pandemic this winter.
Signs in the Northeast-Coming out of the holidays, the country saw a large uptick in cases, hospitalizations and deaths, and it looked like we were possibly headed for another deadly winter wave. But in recent days, cases and hospitalizations have begun to level off or come down nationally.
Consider the Northeast: The Omicron subvariant XBB.1.5 was first discovered in New York in the fall, and for the last month or so it has been driving up cases and hospitalizations in the region. The subvariant now makes up about 83 percent of cases in the Northeast, according to C.D.C. data.
But over the last 10 days or so, those trends have started to reverse. Wastewater data show cases in the region dropping, and hospitalizations have also begun to decline.
“In New York, I do think it’s reasonable to say that XBB.1.5 has peaked in terms of infections and hospitalizations,” said Dr. Ashish Jha, the White House coronavirus response coordinator. “That is all heartening and important, and I do think that it says that XBB.1.5 is certainly not leading to a major wave in the Northeast.”
While that might be positive news for the region, most of the rest of the country has yet to have its own turn with the new variant, and when it spreads it will likely lead to an increase in cases, hospitalizations and deaths.
“I think based on everything we know right now, I don’t think we’re expecting some major waves because, again, we didn’t see it in the Northeast,” Dr. Jha said.
The best estimates from the White House as to how many people are currently infected, Dr. Jha said, is at about the same level as during the BA.5 wave this summer, but with much less severe outcomes.
“What you’re seeing is a transition to ongoing transmission but much milder infections,” Dr. Céline Gounder, a senior fellow at the Kaiser Family Foundation, told my colleagues at The Morning.
Tracking hospitalizations, it looks as though the wintertime surge of 2022-23 is less severe than winter surges in the past two years.
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Data is through Jan. 12, 2023; chart shows a seven-day daily average. | Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services
That said, our death rate is still way too high — we’re averaging about 540 deaths per day. Dr. Jha told me that many of those deaths are the result of the increase in infections during the holidays, and that “almost all of them are people who are either not up-to-date on their vaccines, or did not get treated, and often, both.”
Viral interference
While recent signs out of the Northeast are trending positive, there’s a new curveball that’s disrupting our understanding of the pandemic this year: viral interference.
It’s the theory that when we have multiple viruses during a season — as we did this year with R.S.V., the flu and Covid — they won’t peak at the same time.
“The idea is that you’re going to see viruses take turns, one after the other,” said my colleague Apoorva Mandavilli, a science reporter who tracks the virus. “That’s because when our bodies are exposed to one virus, our immune systems go on high alert, and we are better able to defend against viruses.”
This year, R.S.V. surged and peaked in mid-November. The flu peaked next, reaching highs in December. “So now with Covid we have to wait and see,” Apoorva said, “because last year, by this time, Omicron was blazing but that may all just be pushed out this year because R.S.V. and flu were there first.”
The Economy: From PasadenaNOW: Los Angeles County’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.7% in December, down from a revised 4.8% in November, according to figures released Friday by the state Employment Development Department. The 4.7% rate was below the 6.8% rate in December 2021.
In Orange County, where seasonally adjusted numbers were not available, the December unemployment rate was 2.5%, down from 3% in November.
Statewide, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 4.1% in December, 4.1% in November and 5.8% in December 2021. The comparable figures for the nation were 3.5% in December, 3.6% in November and 3.9% in December 2021.
Total nonfarm employment in Los Angeles County decreased by 7,600 positions between November and December to reach more than 4.6 million.
The information sector showed the biggest dropoff, shedding 8,800 jobs, mostly in the motion picture and sound recording industries, according to the EDD.
December’s monthly decline in the consumer price index gets the Federal Reserve a step closer to beating inflation, though they’re highly unlikely to signal an easing of policy anytime soon. The key inflation gauge fell 0.1% for the month, in line with market expectations and was the biggest drop since April 2020.
Though the CPI for all items is still 6.5% ahead of where it was a year ago, the arc has been steadily lower — from its peak at around a 9% annual rate in June 2022 — amid a sharp drop in gas prices and some serious interest rate increases from the Fed.
The question now is how much more evidence policymakers will need to see before they take their foot off the brake.
Prices for wholesale goods and services fell sharply in December, providing another sign that inflation, while still high, is beginning to ease.
The producer price index, which measures final demand prices across hundreds of categories, declined 0.5% for the month, the Labor Department reported Wednesday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a 0.1% decline. The decline was the biggest on a monthly basis since April 2020.
Excluding food and energy, the core PPI measure rose 0.1%, matching the estimate. For the year, headline PPI rose 6.2%, the lowest annual level since March 2021 and down considerably from the 10% annual increase in 2021. A sharp drop in energy prices helped bring the headline inflation reading down for the month. The PPI’s final demand energy index plunged 7.9% on the month. Within that category, wholesale gasoline prices fell 13.4%. The final demand food index also fell, declining 1.2%.
The U.S. unemployment rate declined overall in December, but rose for Black women and Hispanic men, according to the latest nonfarm payrolls report.
Black women saw unemployment increased to 5.5% last month, up 0.3 percentage points from 5.2% in November, data from the Labor Department showed Friday. Overall, Black employment held steady at 5.7%, while the unemployment rate for Black men actually declined to 5.1% from 5.4% last month.
Meanwhile, Latino men saw unemployment rise to 4% in December, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from 3.6% the prior month. The overall unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1% from 4.0%. Unemployment among Latino women also ticked up to 3.7% from 3.6%.
Those figures bucked the trend in the broader economy, which showed unemployment in the U.S. fall to 3.5% from 3.7%. It was 0.2 percentage points below consensus expectations from the Dow Jones.
A stronger-than-expected December jobs report continued to suggest a robust labor market, even as lighter-than-expected wage growth fanned some investor hopes that inflation may be coming down.
Nonfarm payrolls rose by 223,000 in December, more than the Dow Jones estimate of 200,000. Meanwhile, average hourly earnings rose 0.3% for the month and gained 4.6% from a year ago. These are compared to estimates of 0.4% and 5% increases.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has tested positive for Covid-19, the central bank announced Wednesday morning. Powell, 69, is “experiencing mild symptoms,” according to the announcement. “Chair Powell is up to date with COVID-19 vaccines and boosters. Following Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidance, he is working remotely while isolating at home,” a news release said.
The clock is ticking for the U.S. to avoid a default on its debt, and some are sounding the alarm about potential disruptions to Social Security and Medicare. On Thursday, Jan. 19, the U.S. outstanding debt hit its statutory limit. The debt limit or debt ceiling is the total amount of money the U.S. can borrow to meet its legal obligations including Social Security and Medicare benefits, as well as military salaries, tax refunds, interest on the national debt and other payments.
On Thursday, the U.S. began taking “extraordinary measures” to avoid defaulting on its obligations, Yellen wrote in an updated letter to congressional leaders.
“We’re looking at as early as June for a train wreck on this issue,” said Dan Adcock, director of government relations and policy at the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare.
“The consequences are dire, because a default would not only disrupt Social Security and Medicare benefits, but also cause a global economic recession or worse,” he said.
How benefit payments could be delayed: If the U.S. were to default on its debt, it would be unprecedented. The big question is whether the Treasury Department would be able to prioritize what does and does not get paid if that occurs. Unlike a government shutdown, where Social Security and Medicare benefits continue to flow, that may not be the case with a default, according to Adcock.
“There’s a good chance that benefits for retirees and people with disabilities and survivors would be disrupted,” he said.
Even a short delay could interfere with beneficiaries’ ability to pay for health care, food, rent, utilities or other necessary expenses, the National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare said in a statement on Thursday.
The World Bank slashed its global growth forecasts from projections it made in mid-2022 on the back of what it sees as broadly worsening economic conditions.
The international development institution downgraded almost all of its forecasts for advanced economies in the world, cutting its growth outlook for the global economy to 1.7% for 2023, it said in its latest report, Global Economic Prospects. The organization earlier projected the world economy to expand by 3% in 2023.
The adjustment was led by a significant downgrade to its prospects for the U.S. economy — it now forecasts 0.5% growth from an earlier projection of 2.4%.
The World Bank cut its growth outlook for China for 2023 from 5.2% to 4.3%, Japan from 1.3% to 1% , and Europe and Central Asia from 1.5% to 0.1%.