Cases: The official global death toll from COVID-19 eclipsed 6 million Monday, underscoring that the pandemic, now entering its third year, is far from over.
The milestone, recorded by Johns Hopkins University, is the latest tragic reminder of the unrelenting nature of the pandemic even as people are shedding masks, travel is resuming and businesses are reopening around the globe.
Remote Pacific islands, whose isolation had protected them for more than two years, are just now grappling with their first outbreaks and deaths, fueled by the highly contagious omicron variant.
Hong Kong, which is seeing deaths soar, is testing its entire population of 7.5 million three times this month as it clings to mainland China’s “zero-COVID” strategy.
As death rates remain high in Poland, Hungary, Romania and other Eastern European countries, the region has seen mor than 1.5 million refugees arrive from war-torn Ukraine, a country with poor vaccination coverage and high rates of cases and deaths.
And despite its wealth and vaccine availability, the United States is nearing 1 million reported deaths on its own.
Death rates worldwide are still highest among people unvaccinated against the virus, said Tikki Pang, a visiting professor at the National University of Singapore’s medical school and co-chair of the Asia Pacific Immunization Coalition.
Mask Mandates: From the Pasadena Star-News: Students and staff in the Pasadena Unified School District will no longer be required to wear masks while on campus next week. Instead, face coverings will only be “strongly recommended,” beginning Monday. The change in district policy comes almost two years to the day that Pasadena Unified opted to go remote in light of surging coronavirus case counts on March 13, 2020. The district returned to campus instruction for the start of the semester in January, but a firestorm of debate regarding the merits of vaccine and mask mandates continued inside and outside the classroom.
With no coronavirus cases reported in the district this week, Superintendent Brian McDonald said Thursday: “Now we are entering the endemic stage of our journey with COVID-19, which calls for us to transition to less restrictive safety measures.”
The state’s order to wear masks indoors at schools was lifted late last night. Los Angeles County and Pasadena are expected to follow suit in their own health orders.
The new Omicron variant: From the New York Times: As the Omicron coronavirus surge subsides, researchers are keeping an eye on a highly transmissible subvariant known as BA.2. Although it doesn’t appear to have the capacity to drive a large new wave of infections, the variant could potentially slow the current decline of Covid cases and make treatments more difficult.
Here’s what we know so far about BA.2.
It’s not really new.
Scientists first discovered the Omicron variant in November, and it quickly became clear that the viral lineage already existed as three genetically distinct varieties. Each branch of Omicron had its own set of unique mutations. At the time, the most common was BA.1, which quickly spread across the world. BA.1 was almost entirely responsible for the record-shattering spike in cases this winter.
At first, BA.1 was a thousand times as common as BA.2. But in early 2022, BA.2 started to be found in a larger proportion of new infections.
It seems to be easier to catch.
All versions of Omicron are highly contagious, which is why the variant swiftly crowded out earlier forms of the coronavirus, like Delta. But a number of studies have found that BA.2 is even more transmissible than BA.1.
In Denmark, for example, scientists examined the spread of both subvariants in households. They found that people infected with BA.2 were substantially more likely to infect people they shared a house with than those with BA.1. In England, researchers found that it took less time on average for someone with BA.2 to infect another person, accelerating its spread through communities.
It is not yet causing a new surge in the United States, and probably won’t.
In early 2022, BA.2 was growing more common in a number of countries. By February, it had become dominant worldwide, driving down the once-dominant BA.1. In the United States, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated that BA.2 jumped to 11 percent in early March from 1 percent in early February. It could soon become dominant in this country as well.
But that does not mean that Americans are riding a new BA.2 wave that is infecting a lot of new people. As BA.2 became more common in the United States, the total number of new cases fell by about 95 percent. Worldwide, the number of daily new cases had fallen to half of what they were at their peak in late January.
As many countries relax their protections against the spread of Covid, they may make it easier for BA.2 to drive a new increase in cases. A March 10 report from British researchers suggests that may be happening there now.
But there are a number of reasons that epidemiologists doubt that BA.2 will drive a massive new surge.
Existing vaccines work against the BA.2 variant.
One of Omicron’s most striking features was its ability to partly evade the protection of vaccines. “Breakthrough” infections became more common, helping to drive the case surge to its record high. But the vaccines continued to protect people against severe disease, especially those who received a booster. Throughout the Omicron surge, vaccines remained highly effective against hospitalization.
British health officials have compared the effect of vaccines against BA.1 and BA.2 infections. They’ve found little difference between the two subvariants. And in both, a booster shot provides fairly strong protection against infection and very strong protection against hospitalization.
The BA.2 variant is vulnerable to antibodies made by the immune system after an earlier Omicron infection.
When Omicron first emerged, scientists were startled by how effectively it could evade immunity produced by infections with earlier variants. That’s because it has mutations that change the virus’s surface, making it hard for antibodies to earlier variants to stick to it.
Because BA.2 carries a number of unique mutations that set it apart from BA.1, researchers wondered if it could evade immunity from BA.1 infections. That doesn’t seem to be the case. The World Health Organization said that infection with BA.1 provides strong protection against infection with BA.2.
BA.2 does not appear to be more severe than the previous version of Omicron.
The Omicron variant proved to be a paradox: It was highly transmissible, but an individual infection was on average less likely to lead to a serious case of Covid than infections from the Delta variant. That led to many people getting mild Omicron infections. But that didn’t mean the Omicron surge was “mild.” Because it infected so many more people than ever before, it led to a staggering number of hospitalizations and deaths.
Studies on Omicron revealed several reasons for its reduced severity. Vaccinations and infections with earlier variants have given many people immune defenses that prevent Covid from spiraling out of control. Omicron also proved to be intrinsically less severe than other variants, causing less damage in the lungs. Similar experiments are ongoing with BA.2. Japanese researchers who have infected hamsters with the two variants have found that BA.2 causes more severe disease. But it’s not clear how good of a model hamsters are for humans. British researchers have found that BA.2 infection does not carry a higher risk of hospitalization than BA.1.
Some authorized medications work against BA.2. Others don’t.
Like BA.1, BA.2 is able to evade most monoclonal antibody treatments authorized by the Food and Drug Administration, making them ineffective. Some treatments, such as Evusheld made by AstraZeneca, continue to work. The antiviral drugs Paxlovid, molnupiravir and remdesivir all remain highly effective against both Omicron variants if taken soon after a positive test.
BA.2’s ‘stealth variant’ nickname is outdated.
BA.2 was nicknamed the “stealth variant” when BA.2 did not tip off its presence in positive P.C.R. test samples, making it a challenge for researchers to distinguish Omicron cases from those of Delta and other variants. BA.2 carried a mutation that concealed one of the three telltale coronavirus genes that the tests detect.
Now that a vast majority of positive tests involve Omicron, the missing mutation doesn’t matter: Nearly all viruses picked up by P.C.R. are BA.1, and those that are not are BA.2.
AND
Deltacron: From the Los Angeles Times: Officials keep eye on new variant. ‘Deltacron’ is a hybrid of Delta and Omicron. How worried should Californians be? By Rong-Gong Lin II and Luke Money
As the latest coronavirus surge ebbs, health officials are keeping watch on a new synthesis of the Delta and Omicron variants. Dubbed “Deltacron,” it’s a combination of the variants that fueled the last two COVID-19 waves, California State Epidemiologist Dr. Erica Pan said during a briefing this week to the California Medical Assn.
Deltacron isn’t setting off alarm bells among health officials just yet. Only a handful of cases have been documented nationwide, including at least one in California, Pan said.
So far, neither the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention nor the World Health Organization has deemed it necessary to classify Deltacron as a variant of interest or concern — labels reserved for strains with particularly troubling characteristics, such as the ability to spread rapidly, cause especially severe illness or evade the protection afforded by vaccines.
Pan said that based on the available clinical and epidemiological data, she isn’t concerned about Deltacron at the moment. But, she added, “it is, to us, a harbinger that the next one will come. We just don’t know when, and we’re monitoring this closely.”
Deltacron gained attention following a recent broadcast of CBS’ “ 60 Minutes ” in which CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky was shown asking about the strain during a staff meeting. A staffer replied that Deltacron was “out there, but we’re still in the, like, handful of cases.” The variant has not been detected in Los Angeles County, according to Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer.
Deltacron is distinct from BA.2, a sublineage of Omicron that has gained attention in recent weeks. Pan said some experts suggest BA.2 should be treated as a variant distinct from Omicron, “because it’s so different when you look at the genomic trees to the other Omicron variants.”
Pan said California is seeing a rise in cases of BA.2, and there are higher proportions of this sublineage in wastewater samples. But so far, officials haven’t expressed much concern.
BA.2 is believed to be 30% more infectious than BA.1, the dominant Omicron subvariant, Ferrer said. So far in L.A. County, BA.2 has been identified in 231 analyzed Omicron cases.
Overall, the coronavirus outlook continues to improve in Los Angeles County, as cases and hospitalizations decline. L.A. County’s COVID-19 community level — a CDC-defined indication of strain on hospitals — is considered low.
But transmission levels remain substantial, at 89 cases a week for every 100,000 residents, according to CDC data published Thursday. That “means there’s just a fair amount of virus still circulating,” Ferrer said at a news briefing.
L.A. County averaged 39 COVID-19 deaths a day over the past week — down from a peak of 73 in early February but higher than pre-Omicron surge levels of about 15. Although the declining death rate is encouraging, “it’s still disheartening that we’re continuing to lose so many residents to COVID-19,” Ferrer said.
The Economy: From the Pasadena Star-News: Southern California’s pandemic- recovery hiring spree was 66% bigger than previously estimated last year, new jobs data shows. The four-county region averaged 7.44 million jobs throughout 2021’s economic reopening, according to data revisions released Friday. That was 134,000 more jobs than previously reported. The revisions also found an extra 34,000 jobs in 2020.
That means 2021’s growth topped 2020 by 249,500 jobs,
including 100,000 more workers — or 66% more than preliminary estimates. One of the less-discussed truths about economic data is that monthly estimates are almost always less accurate than the more sophisticated analyses performed over longer periods. Employment stats are a perfect example.
The widely watched monthly jobs numbers from the state Employment Development Department and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics come from surveys of businesses and households. But once a year the government’s data crunchers revise their math, largely based on a review of unemployment insurance records. This paperwork connects the dots on almost every worker in the nation.
So, what we think we know vs. what’s actually happening can take time to percolate to the surface. And California’s faster-than-first-reported hiring pace is yet another piece in the pandemic’s economic puzzle that includes a worker shortage, soaring home prices, ballooning inflation and crowded freeways.
And while the revised stats for 2021 and 2020 offer some good news, let’s not forget that last year’s regional employment was still 345,000 jobs short of the good ol’ days of 2019.
IE hiring wins
The revised data shows the Inland Empire is leading the region’s hiring rebound. That’s not terribly surprising since it’s a hub for logistics.
Riverside and San Bernardino counties averaged 1.57 million jobs last year, up 73,900. That’s an additional 33,000 jobs — or 45% more hirings than previously reported. In 2020, the counties lost 57,600 jobs — 6,700 fewer than the previous estimate. By this math, the twocounty region is 16,300 jobs ahead of pre-pandemic days.
Los Angeles County had 4.3 million jobs last year, up 128,000. That’s an additional 65,100 jobs or 51% more hirings than previously reported. In 2020, the county lost 394,400 jobs — 20,400 fewer than previous estimates. It adds up to 266,400 fewer jobs than before coronavirus.
Orange County had 1.58 million jobs last year, up 47,600 with an additional 1,500 jobs or 3% more hirings than previously estimated. In 2020, the county lost 142,600 jobs — 6,100 fewer than previous estimates. Orange County remains 95,000 workers short of its pre-COVID-19 numbers.
Still, less fun
Another split in the region is how employment has varied by industry.
The “fun” industries — hospitality trades serving food, entertainment and tourists — have slowly regained what was lost when the virus made large gatherings unpopular. These businesses averaged 767,200 jobs in the region in 2021, up 70,700. That’s 12,100 more hirings than reported. Last year followed a 2020 when 254,200 jobs were lost.
The rest of the economy had 6.68 million jobs last year, up 178,900 for 2021, and 87,600 more hirings than previously estimated. In 2020, 340,400 jobs were lost — 31,800 fewer than previous estimates.
Hospitality trades suffered disproportionally large jobs cuts. Since 2019, the “fun” industries are down 183,600 workers. That’s slightly more than half of the region’s employment drop in the pandemic era.
Yet the leisure and hospitality industries are relatively small, accounting for 10% of all local jobs.
Who’s hiring?
The bottom line for job seekers isn’t found in these longterm hiring trends, rather it’s which bosses are beefing up staff.
So here’s a look at key employment niches ranked by how many jobs were added in 2021 — or cut — vs. a lot of cuts in 2020 …
- • Restaurants: Up 56,420 last year to 583,860 jobs vs. cutting 154,680 workers in 2020.
- • Business services: Up 53,850 last year to 1.12 million jobs vs. cutting 69,060 workers in 2020.
- • Retailing: Up 35,860 last year to 722,650 jobs vs. cutting 62,280 workers in 2020.
- • Transportation/warehouses: Up 33,660 last year to 423,908 jobs vs. adding 20,820 workers in 2020.
- • Health care, personal services: Up 30,180 last year to 1.16 million jobs vs. cutting 12,780 workers in 2020.
- • Arts, entertainment and recreation: Up 14,720 last year to 123,280 jobs vs. cutting 64,680 workers in 2020.
- • Construction, real estate, finance: Up 8,980 last year to 652,750 jobs vs. cutting 21,350 workers in 2020.
- • Hotels: Down 480 last year to 60,070 jobs vs. cutting 34,880 workers in 2020.
- • Manufacturing: Down 5,730 last year to 553,630 jobs vs. cutting 41,700 workers in 2020.
- • Government: Down 17,200 last year to 957,120 jobs vs. cutting 36,330 workers in 2020.
Jonathan Lansner is a business columnist. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com.
Unemployment: America’s worker shortage is far from over: In January, the nation had a record 11.3 million jobs to fill and not enough workers to do so, according to new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This exceeded economists’ expectations and blew past the previous peak for open positions, set at 11.1 million last July. Despite the new record high, job openings fell in several industries as infections from the omicron variant of the coronavirus weighed on some businesses. Hotels, restaurants and bars recorded the biggest decrease in available positions, followed by transportation, warehouse, utilities and the federal government.
Professional and business services, education and transport and warehousing counted the most available job openings.
Meanwhile, the number of hires and quits were unchanged from December to January: 6.5 million workers were hired and 4.3 million workers quit their jobs at the start of the year, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed Wednesday.
The quits rate improved to 2.8% from 3% in December.
Better pay, as people are trying to offset the higher prices everywhere from the grocery store to the gas pump, has been a big motivator for Americans to switch jobs.
California’s unemployment rate held steady in January as the nation’s most populous state added 53,600 jobs in a sign the economy is slowly returning to prepandemic levels. But soaring inflation over the past year, combined with rising gas prices caused by uncertainty over the Russian invasion of Ukraine, could quickly slow the state’s growth because people are likely to spend less as prices go up.
The latest numbers released Friday show California outperformed the rest of the nation in job growth last year, posting a 7.4% increase compared to the national average of 4.6%. California now has regained 82% of the roughly 2.7 million jobs the state lost in March and April 2020, when Gov. Gavin Newsom issued the nation’s first statewide stayat- home order that forced many businesses to close because of the pandemic.
U.S. household net worth jumped to a fresh record in the fourth quarter of 2021 on rising stock prices and higher home values.
Household net worth increased by $5.3 trillion, or 3.7%, after a more moderate gain in the third quarter, a Federal Reserve report showed Thursday. The fourth-quarter advance pushed net worth to more than $150 trillion.
The value of real estate held by households rose by $1.5 trillion and the value of equity holdings climbed $2.5 trillion.
Though the omicron variant and related surge in COVID-19 infections dented economic activity in the final weeks of 2021, there was little effect on wealth in the quarter as the S& P 500 rose to new highs. More recently, stocks have slid on concerns about the economic impact from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Meantime, mortgage rates have risen to levels not seen since 2019, which could eventually lead to a cooling in the rapid price gains seen in the housing market.
In an effort to tame inflation, the Fed next week is expected to raise interest rates for the first time since 2018.