COVID-19 Update for November 15, 2021

COVID-19 Small Business Rent Relief: - County Internal Services Department- Application Period: November 17 - November 24, 2021. Utilizing American Rescue Plan (“ARP”) Act of 2021 funds, Los Angeles County is launching the Small Business Rent Relief Project (“SBRR”).  The National Development Council (NDC) as Subrecipient shall assist the County in administering and deploying up to $7.5 million in ARP Act funds to provide rental assistance to qualified small businesses tenants in unincorporated areas of Los Angeles County of up to $40,000 who have been unable to pay rent due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Project funds shall be paid directly to the qualified small business tenant to pay for past rent due during the time period of March 4, 2020, to the present. Click Here to Learn More + Apply

The winter coronavirus surge in California last year was nothing short of catastrophic.

Emergency rooms were so full that ambulances often had nowhere to drop off patients desperate for treatment. Hospitals needed refrigerated trucks to manage the overflow of bodies in their morgues. In less than three months, California’s death toll from Covid-19 more than doubled.

So, with our second pandemic winter nearly upon us, will disaster strike again?

Coronavirus cases in California have been ticking up since late October. The state is preparing for the possibility of a winter surge — what Gov. Gavin Newsom last week called his “biggest anxiety.”

But unlike last year, 76 percent of Californians have gotten at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccine. That means that while the holiday season may again lead to more transmission of the virus, the consequences will be less ruinous, experts say.

Why numbers will keep climbing: Getting your Covid-19 shots remains the best way to protect against serious illness. And as of last week, all Californians can now receive booster doses to enhance immunity.

But the fact remains that some 9.5 million Californians are totally unvaccinated against the coronavirus. And that’s where things get tricky.

Even in a place like San Francisco, which has one of the highest vaccination rates in the state, tens of thousands of people — roughly a quarter of the city’s population — aren’t fully vaccinated, according to a New York Times vaccination tracker. And some residents who have gotten their shots may have had their immunity wane in recent months.

Health professionals worry that hospitals could still be overloaded, mostly by unvaccinated individuals, as the virus takes off this winter. Unvaccinated Californians are nearly 10 times more likely to be hospitalized with Covid-19 as those who are fully immunized.

The next few months concern epidemiologists because the coronavirus appears to follow a seasonal pattern — similar to how the flu proliferates in the winter — that causes a peak in California in the summer and a bigger one around the end of the year.

Plus, the arrival of chillier weather pushes people to socialize indoors, where it’s easier for the virus to spread. And during the Thanksgiving and winter holidays, families and friends from multiple households tend to congregate, further increasing the chances of coronavirus transmission.

These conditions could mean that regions with large numbers of unvaccinated people, such as the Central Valley and far Northern California, could see disastrous overflows in their hospitals, experts say. (Already, these regions have the highest level of transmission in the state.)

 

Cases: Pasadena’s Daily COVID-19 Infection Rate Hits Plateau in Low Teens-6 infections reported on Wednesday. 

The rate of COVID-19 infection in Pasadena has remained largely stable over the past two weeks as public health officials detected six new cases of the virus in the city on Wednesday.

In total, Pasadena has seen 13,687 COVID-19 infections and 363 deaths since the start of the pandemic, with the most recent death reported in early-October, according to Pasadena Public Health Department data.

The average number of weekly infections in the city stood at 14.4, city records showed. The rate has remained largely stable over the past two weeks, holding between 12.1 and 14.9

The Pasadena Unified School District documented 26 infections among students and five among teachers over the prior week.

At Huntington Hospital, officials listed 26 admitted COVID-19 patients, including five who were being treated in intensive care units.

The Los Angeles County Department of Public Health reported 1,497 new infections and 34 deaths on Wednesday, raising the pandemic totals to 1,506,305 COVID-19 cases and 26,796 fatalities.

The agency listed 630 hospitalized COVID-19 patients across L.A. County, with 26% of them being treated in ICUs.

The county-wide realty test positivity rate was 1.2%.

State public health officials reported 3,716 infections and 134 deaths, bringing the state’s totals to 4,714,839 cases of COVID-19 and 72,132 fatalities.

The state’s weekly positivity rate stood at 2.3%, according to California Department of Public Health data.

As of Wednesday, L.A. County represented 32% of California’s COVID-19 infections and 37% of the state’s deaths.

A judge Friday rejected challenges to California’s statewide requirement that students and staff wear face masks indoors at schools to prevent spread of COVID-19, leaving it to the governor to decide when it’s safe to lift the mandate.

The judge heard arguments earlier in the week on a lawsuit brought in July by two parent groups, Reopen California Schools and Let Them Breathe, arguing the mask requirement was not based on scientific evidence of need and that the face coverings are physically and mentally harmful to kids.

San Diego County Superior Court Judge Cynthia A. Freeland disagreed and granted a demurrer without leave to amend sought by the state, effectively putting an end to the lawsuit.

Winter Surge?: Noting that while daily COVID-19 case numbers and hospitalizations are down dramatically from the same time last year, the county’s public health director said Friday the numbers remain too high, and the daily report of virus-related deaths remains almost identical from last year.

She again noted that the onset of cooler weather — despite this week’s mini-heat wave — has begun to take its toll in the form of higher infection rates as more people gather indoors.

But absent a major increase in the pace of people getting vaccinated, the county will not meet its goal of having 80% of the population aged 12 and over fully vaccinated by the end of the year. Ferrer said the current vaccination pace would need to increase by 60% to reach the goal.

The contagious delta variant is driving up COVID-19 hospitalizations in the Mountain West and fueling disruptive outbreaks in the North, a worrisome sign of what could be ahead this winter in the U.S.

While trends are improving in Florida, Texas and other Southern states that bore the worst of the summer surge, it’s clear that delta isn’t done with the United States. COVID- 19 is moving north and west for the winter as people head indoors, close theirwindows and breathe stagnant air.

“We’re going to see a lot of outbreaks in unvaccinated people that will result in serious illness, and it will be tragic,” said Dr. Donald Milton of the University of Maryland School of Public Health.

In recent days, a Vermont college suspended social gatherings after a spike in cases tied to Halloween parties. Boston officials shut down an elementary school to control an outbreak. Hospitals in NewMexico and Colorado are overwhelmed.

In Michigan, the three county metro Detroit area is again becoming a hot spot for transmissions, with one hospital system reporting nearly 400 COVID- 19 patients. Maskwearing in Michigan has declined to about 25% of people, according to a combination of surveys tracked by an influential modeling group at the University of Washington.

“Concern over COVID in general is pretty much gone, which is unfortunate,” said Dr. Jennifer Morse, medical director at health departments in 20 central and northern Michigan counties. “I feel strange going into a store masked. I’m aminority. It’s very different. It’s just a really unusual atmosphere right now.”

New Mexico is running out of intensive care beds despite the state’s aboveaverage vaccination rate. Waning immunity may be playing a role. People whowere vaccinated early and have not yet received booster shots may be driving up infection numbers, even if they still have some protection from the most dire consequences of the virus.

The delta variant dominates infections across the U.S., accounting for more than 99% of the samples analyzed.

No state has achieved a high enough vaccination rate, even when combined with infection-induced immunity, to avoid the type of outbreaks happening now, Mokdad said.

Vaccines: As millions of eligible Americans consider getting a booster shot, many are wondering what the data tells us about the effectiveness of the vaccines, and how much their protection might be waning.

The good news is that a growing body of research shows that the vaccines authorized in the U.S. remain highly protective against severe disease and hospitalization — even against the Delta variant. There some exceptions among older people and those with weakened immune systems.

But while vaccines remain effective against the worst outcomes, a number of published studies show that their protection against infections has fallen. My colleagues in the Graphics department, Amy Schoenfeld Walker and Josh Holder, put together a few charts to help understand what we know. (If you’re reading this on mobile, you may want to pinch to zoom in.)

A study in England examined the vaccines’ effectiveness against the Delta variant over time. It found that the Pfizer vaccine was about 90 percent effective at preventing symptomatic infection two weeks after the second dose, but that the vaccine dropped to 70 percent effectiveness after five months.

The same study found that the Moderna vaccine’s protection also dropped over time.

Two additional studies, in the U.S. and in Canada, also found that the vaccines’ protection dropped over time.

Still, both the English and Canadian studies found that even after several months, the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines remained highly effective at preventing hospitalization.

But the decline in protection against infection will still have an impact.

Pfizer and BioNTech asked the F.D.A. this week to authorize boosters for all adults. But experts have been divided over whether booster shots are necessary for those beyond the most vulnerable. Some also worry that a national focus on boosters will serve as a distraction.

The economy: Americans quit their jobs at a record pace for the second straight month in September, in many cases for more money elsewhere as companies bump up pay to fill job openings that are close to an all-time high.

The Labor Department said Friday that 4.4 million people quit their jobs in September, or about 3% of the nation’s workforce. That’s up from 4.3 million in August and far above the prepandemic level of 3.6 million. There were 10.4 million job openings, down from 10.6 million in August, which was revised higher.

The figures point to a historic level of turmoil in the job market as newly empowered workers quit jobs to take higher pay that is being dangled by businesses in need of help. Incomes are rising, Americans are spending more and the economy is growing, and employers have ramped up hiring to keep pace. Rising inflation, however, is offsetting much of the pay gains for workers.
Friday’s report follows last week’s jobs report, which showed that employers stepped up their hiring in October, adding 531,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.6% from 4.8%. Hiring rebounded as the delta variant of the coronavirus, which had restrained job gains in August and September, faded.

It is typically perceived as a signal of worker confidence when people leave the jobs they hold. The vast majority of people quit for a new position.
The number of available jobs has topped 10 million for four consecutive months. The record before the pandemic was 7.5 million. There were more job openings in September than the 7.7 million unemployed, illustrating the difficulties so many companies have had finding workers.

In addition to the number of unemployed, there are about 5 million fewer people looking for jobs than before the pandemic, making it much harder for employers to hire. Economists cite many reasons for that decline: Some are mothers unable to find or afford child care, while others are avoiding taking jobs out of fear of contracting COVID-19. Stimulus checks this year and in 2020, as well as extra unemployment aid that has since expired, has given some families more savings and enabled them to hold off from looking for work.

California gas prices hit an average price of $4.658 a gallon Friday, about a penny short of the highest recorded average price of $4.671 for regular gasoline, set in October 2012, according to AAA.

America’s largest state by population has the highest gas prices in the country. The national averagedropped slightly to $3.416 Friday.
“It’s a bit of a supply crunch we have right now — there’s nothing major — until the refineries in Northern California can get back up to full production capac-ity,” said Jeffrey Spring, corporate communications manager of the Automobile Club of Southern California.

The average price of a gallon of regular gas in Los Angeles County rose 1.4 cents Friday to $4.638, its highest amount since Oct. 16, 2012. In Orange County, the average price rose 1.4 cents to $4.605, its highest amount since Oct. 15, 2012, according to figures from the AAA and Oil Price Information Service.

The average price in Riverside County rose 1.6 cents to $4.558, its highest since Oct. 19, 2012. The 2012 figure included stations in San Bernardino County.

Gas prices have been increasing steadily throughout the year as fuel demand grows around the globe and suppliers have been unable, or unwilling, to produce more oil. Although U.S. oil prices have surged by more than 65% this year, US oil production is about 14% below the levels of the end of 2019, before COVID-19 erupted.

California reached its record price in 2012 following refinery glitches that caused prices to spike for a few weeks before coming back down.

U.S. online shoppers looking to stock up for the holidays are finding store shelves, virtual and at the mall, are getting emptier.

Consumers saw 2 billion outof- stock messages last month, Adobe Analytics said in a study released Tuesday. Based on total page views that include available goods, the share of out-of-stock messages rose by a third compared with a year earlier, Adobe said in an email. Compared with October 2019, the share more than quadrupled, with much of the dislocation coming during 2020, the first year of the coronavirus pandemic.

The increase underscores how port congestion and a squeeze on trucking capacity are rippling through the consumer economy. While retail giants such as Walmart and Target say they’re prepared to handle the holiday rush, the stocking headaches mean that shoppers “will need to be prepared to be flexible,” said Taylor Schreiner, director of Adobe Digital Insights.

The goods shortage isn’t just online, according to a Morning Consult survey last month. That study found that among those who have already started their holiday shopping, more than half reported that a product they wanted to purchase in a store was out of stock.

At online retailers, electronic goods currently have the highest out-of-stock levels, followed by jewelry, apparel, home and garden, and pet products, Adobe said.

One result of the bottlenecks is that some people have already started shopping, lured by early holiday deals. Online spending climbed 8% to $72.4 billion in October, Adobe said. Big sellers included Got2Glow Fairy Finder and Bluey toys; PlayStation 5, Nintendo Switch and Xbox Series S consoles; and air fryers.

Logistics/Shipping/Fulfillment: High above the congested Port of Long Beach, where waiting ships, rail cars and stacked containers could be seen through a brown haze, U.S. Sen. Alex Padilla and other officials gathered Friday to promise that relief is on the way in the form of the $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill set to be signed by President Joe Biden early next week.

Padilla was joined by port and union officials — as well as U.S. Rep. Nanette Diaz Barragan, DSan Pedro, California Transportation Agency Secretary David Kim and Long Beach Mayor Robert Garcia — in a news conference on the roof of the joint Control and Command Center at Pier F in the Port of Long Beach.

The lawmakers earlier met with officials from both the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach for a briefing on what is most needed from the federal and state branches to repair the clogged supply chain that has left some store shelves empty ahead of the holiday season and increased pollution as ships idle offshore.

The new infrastructure bill, which includes $17 billion for ports and waterways, will be key to solving the problem, Padilla and the other speakers said.

Some par ticipants said they hoped some of the funding can be fasttracked, with Padilla suggesting relief could be seen in months, not years.

The lawmakers also lobbied for passage of companion legislation — called the Build Back Better Act — saying it is important because it would address environmental issues.

That legislation, which faces more opposition, would invest more than $550 billion to address climate change, something the speakers said Friday is a key element to the overall infrastructure problem.

Sparked by the pandemic, which began in March 2020, the supply chain crisis has dominated global headlines in recent months.

While initial months of the pandemic brought a sudden drop in cargo at both ports, everything changed by mid-summer when containers began flooding in from Asia, setting records. The surge shows no sign of letting up.

Efforts are underway to ease the situation, including a new ship queuing system, announced Thursday, and fines set to be levied as early as Monday for ocean carriers who leave cargo too long at terminals, taking up valuable dock spaces.

Ramon Ponce de Leon, president of the International Longshore and Warehouse Union Local 13, said containers crowding dock space has slowed the entire process — contributing to a domino effect at virtually every node of the supply chain.

Ships have been lining up along the coast as far as south Orange County, having to wait days before getting a berth. There’s a shortage of truck drivers and chassis, hamstringing efforts to move containers out of the nation’s two busiest ports. Plus, the vast network of warehouses across Riverside and San Bernardino counties have been pushed to capacity.

David Kim, secretary of the California Transportation Agency, said the main infrastructure bill the president will sign is a “big deal for California.”