From the LA Times: Despite the rapid spread of the Omicron coronavirus variant, Los Angeles County’s top health official said Tuesday that no lockdowns are planned at this time, as vaccines and other safety measures remain strong tools to combat the new threat.
The stance in the nation’s most populous county echoes statements from President Biden, national COVID-19 czar Dr. Anthony Fauci and health officials elsewhere in California.
Meanwhile, Gov. Gavin Newsom on Tuesday announced that California will mandate boosters for all healthcare workers in hopes of improving immunity and protecting hospitals from an expected surge of patients.
While L.A. County Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer acknowledged the growing anxiety over Omicron, she emphasized that the rollout of vaccines puts the region in a better position than it was in during last winter’s COVID-19 surge.
Of the 99 cases associated with Omicron that had been confirmed in L.A. County as of Monday, none resulted in hospitalization with COVID-19 or death, according to Ferrer. Even so, the fact that Omicron spreads so rapidly means that many more people may end up exposed to infection — and not all will be able to ward off the viral assault.
Officials continue to stress that those who are vaccinated — and especially those who have gotten a booster shot — remain far better protected than those who have yet to roll up their sleeves.
Unvaccinated Californians are seven times more likely to get COVID-19, 13 times more likely to require hospitalization and 16 times more likely to die from the disease, according to the latest state data.
California, on the whole, has a relatively robust level of vaccination coverage. About 74% of Californians have received at least one dose, and two-thirds of the state population are fully vaccinated. In L.A. County, those numbers are 75.4% and 67.7%, respectively. But officials have expressed concern that Omicron could still spread rapidly and overwhelm hospitals, particularly in areas with lower vaccination rates.
Cases:
Pasadena again saw an increase in the number of new daily COVID cases Thursday in a range not seen for almost a year, with 158 confirmed and 10 probable cases reported. The 7-day average number of new cases has risen to 77.7 cases per day, from just over 20 per day on Tuesday.
It is not known if the number of COVID-19-positive patients at Huntington Hospital increased since the hospital has not updated publicly-available online information since Wednesday.
Los Angeles County has reported more than 8,600 new COVID-19 cases, continuing a precipitous climb that the county’s public health director warned could lead to record numbers of daily infections by the end of the year.
Thursday’s 8,633 new infections in the County marked a 33% jump from Wednesday’s 6,509. Wednesday’s number was more than double the total from Tuesday, when 3,052 cases were reported.
LA County Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer warned Wednesday that if infections continue such a dramatic rise, the daily case number could top 20,000 by the end of the year, reaching the highest level of the pandemic.
Ferrer noted Wednesday that hospitalization numbers have thus far remained relatively stable, crediting COVID vaccines for preventing infected people from becoming seriously ill. But on Thursday, the number of COVID- positive patients in county hospitals rose to 801, topping 800 for the first time since early October, according to state figures. The 801 hospitalizations is up from 770 on Wednesday. Of those hospitalized, 174 were being treated in intensive care, up from 166 on Wednesday.
Ferrer said the vast majority of people being hospitalized due to the virus are unvaccinated, insisting that hospitalization numbers for vaccinated residents have remained low and flat since the shots became available. According to county figures, the hospitalization rate for unvaccinated people was 25 per 100,000 residents as of Wednesday, compared to just 1 per 100,000 for the vaccinated.
According to Ferrer, unvaccinated people are five times more likely to get infected with COVID, 21 times more likely to be hospitalized and 18 times more likely to die.
The county on Thursday reported another 24 COVID-related deaths, raising the cumulative total to 27,512. The 8,633 new cases gave the county a pandemic total of 1,585,313.
According to the county, the average daily rate of people testing positive for the virus rose to 6.6% as of Thursday, more than triple the rate from a week ago.
The surge in COVID infections is blamed primarily on rapid spread of the Omicron variant, which was first discovered in South Africa and has quickly migrated around the globe, including all 50 U.S. states. Health officials have said there is no evidence Omicron can cause more severe illness, but it can readily spread from person to person, including those who are vaccinated.
Ferrer said the benefit of vaccination is that it will prevent a COVID infection from causing severe illness or death.
As of Sunday, 78% of eligible county residents aged 5 and up have received at least one dose of vaccine, and 70% were fully vaccinated. Of the county’s overall 10.3 million residents, 74% have received at least one dose, and 66% are fully vaccinated.
Black residents continue to have the lowest vaccination rate overall, at just 56% with at least one dose. Among Latino/a residents, the rate is 62%, compared to 75% of white residents and 84% of Asians.
Ferrer said the county is not immediately considering a return to lockdown or other severe restrictions on public activity, but it will depend on the actions residents take to slow spread of the virus.
“I’ve always been transparent and honest that with a variant such as Omicron and potentially other variants that could happen in the future, every single option has to be on the table,” she said. “Every single tool we have has to be available for us to protect people’s lives and livelihood and … avoid overwhelming the hospital system.
“… I think if we can all do this, all of us, every single person, commit to celebrating with as much safety as possible, which may mean you’re changing up some of your plans, we’re going to be OK,” she said.
Last weekend’s (12-19 to 12-20) count of 104 new COVID cases was the first time in 11 months that Pasadena saw so many new infections in two days. A Pasadena Public Health Dept. doctor says the public should be prepared to see many more infections as COVID makes a comeback.
The increasing case count is likely a combination of the introduction of the highly-contagious Omicron variant locally at the same as an increase in gatherings and social events that are characteristic of the holiday season, Pasadena Public Health Department Epidemiologist Dr. Mark Feaster said Monday.
Earlier a Pasadena City official reported that last week Pasadena’s “7-day average is up over 20 cases/day, which we have not seen since we left the tail end of the Delta surge in late August. We have not seen a single-day case count this high since late July, early August.”
Huntington Hospital on Monday reported its doctors and nurses are treating 31 COVID-positive patients, of whom 14 are in an ICU. The hospital said 87% of those patients are unvaccinated.
Feaster said it is not yet known how pervasively the Omicron variant is spreading in Pasadena.
“We know our first documented case of Omicron had a symptom onset in the first week of December, which means Omicron has likely been circulating for at least two weeks now,” he said.
“As we continue to collect information on these variants, we will know better what percentage of the current cases are Omicron or Delta but that will take time.”
Fester said the PPHD is still learning about whether Omicron causes illness that is more mild or severe than Delta, specifically in the city’s population.
In Los Angeles County Monday, public health officials identified 60 new Omicron cases.
The County’s sharp rise in COVID-19 infections continued. 3,258 new COVID infections were reported on Monday, the fourth day in a row the number has topped 3,000. Since the pandemic began, a total of 1,567,133 cases have been confirmed in the county.
The seven new deaths reported Monday lifted the county’s cumulative death toll to 27,448.
According to state figures, there were 741 COVID-positive patients in Los Angeles County hospitals as of Monday, down from 743 on Sunday. There were 172 of those patients being treated in intensive care, down from 180 a day earlier.
The 60 newly confirmed Omicron cases marked a major jump in the county’s total, reflecting a trend being seen across the country. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported Monday that Omicron — which was first detected in South Africa and has rapidly spread globally — is now estimated to be responsible for 73% of COVID infections nationwide.
The county Department of Public Health reported Monday that COVID outbreaks increased dramatically in almost all sectors during the week that ended Friday — including a 118% jump in the education sector, 83% in congregate housing facilities and 24% at worksites and churches.
However, outbreaks actually dropped by 11% at skilled nursing facilities, a statistic the county attributed to the high rate of booster shots among staff and residents. According to the county, 84% of eligible nursing facility residents in the county have received booster shots, and 50% of eligible staff.
Vaccinations also continue to provide excellent protection from the Delta variant. The widespread uptake of booster shots at skilled nursing facilities — a result of early efforts to get booster doses to these highly vulnerable individuals as soon as they became available — have helped keep outbreaks at lower numbers in these settings.
According to county figures, as of Dec. 12, 77.6% of eligible county residents aged 5 and older had received at least one dose of vaccine and 69% were fully vaccinated.
More than 1.8 million booster doses have been administered in the county.
Ferrer said last week there is no evidence to suggest the Omicron variant causes more severe symptoms than previous versions, but it is more transmissible than other variants and will circulate more widely in the county — particularly with upcoming holiday travel.
Omicron mobilization: President Biden’s Covid-19 response got off to a strong start. In his first few months in office, he and his team eliminated the chaotic, scientifically dubious messages that had come from the Trump administration and rapidly accelerated the pace of vaccinations.
In doing so, Biden compared the fight against Covid to wartime mobilization. “It will be the first priority, the second priority and the third priority — to deal with Covid and bring down the spread and bring down the death rate,” he told me during a phone call shortly before taking office.
But the Biden administration has fallen behind in recent months — on persuading people to get booster shots, on approving lifesaving treatments and on making Covid tests easily available. With the Omicron variant spreading rapidly, Biden faces another need to mobilize the federal government. He is set to give a speech today outlining his plans to do so.
According to White House officials, the plans include: sending military troops to help hospitals cope with Covid surges; deploying ventilators to places that need them; invoking a wartime law to accelerate production of Covid tests; sending free tests to people next month; and opening more vaccination clinics.
Omicron already accounts for about 75 percent of new cases in the U.S., the C.D.C. said yesterday, and experts expect cases to soar over the next month. The vast majority will be mild because the vast majority of Americans have some degree of immune protection (and because childhood Covid is almost always mild). But Omicron may cause such a large increase in cases that it will nonetheless overwhelm hospitals, many of which are already near capacity.
One potential problem is hospital staffing. One-third of all health care workers may contract Covid and need to miss work, Michael Osterholm of the University of Minnesota said on the podcast “In the Bubble.”
Here are the three major areas in which the U.S. has fallen behind:
1. Boosters: For months, Americans heard a message — from experts, politicians and journalists — that anybody who had received two Covid shots was “fully vaccinated.” That message is no longer fully accurate. If you received your second shot more than six months ago (or a Johnson & Johnson more than two months ago), your immunity has begun to wane. You are more likely to contract Omicron than somebody who has received a booster shot.
People who closely follow Covid news are aware of the power of boosters. But millions of other Americans are not. About 73 percent of Americans have received at least one vaccine shot, and less than 20 percent have received a full initial dose plus a booster, according to the C.D.C.
In a notable development, Donald Trump yesterday said that he had received a booster shot and encouraged his supporters to embrace Covid vaccines. In the past, Trump has been less positive about vaccines, and many conservatives continue to sow vaccine misinformation.
In heavily Democratic areas, the problem is different: a shortage of shots before holiday gatherings. “My local CVS pharmacist said they have been besieged and are no longer taking walk-ins,” Carey Bodenheimer, a California resident, tweeted yesterday.
One idea, if you’re not boosted yet: Search online for a nearby clinic that does not require appointments. That worked for my family.
2. Treatments: Public health officials have demanded a lot of flexibility from Americans during this pandemic, as Matthew Yglesias of Substack has pointed out: Keep your children home from school. Work at home. Cancel family events. Save the masks for medical workers — then again, start wearing masks now!
But public health agencies like the F.D.A. and C.D.C. have frequently failed to show much flexibility themselves. Rather than overhauling their approach during a global emergency, they have been slow to take steps that could have saved lives — like encouraging mask use sooner, giving full approval to vaccines sooner or encouraging mix-and-match booster shots sooner.
The latest example is the F.D.A.’s lack of approval for a Pfizer treatment intended for people who have contracted Covid and are at risk of serious illness. The treatment, known as Paxlovid, reduces hospitalization and death by about 90 percent, Pfizer says.
Obviously, if the F.D.A. has an undisclosed reason to believe that the treatment is problematic, the slowness would be justified. But recent history suggests the agency often moves slowly and passively out of bureaucratic habit, not substantive concern.
3. Testing: The simultaneous arrival of Omicron and the holiday season has caused a surge in demand for rapid Covid tests. They are again nearly impossible to find in some places. As my colleague Tara Parker-Pope asks, “How do we get through the holidays and the next two months without rapid tests?”
Biden’s announcements today — to increase production and distribute free tests next month — are intended to address the shortage.
The bottom line: On any individual level, many Americans remain at very small risk of a severe case of Covid. But the unvaccinated face serious risks. Some vaccinated Americans — including the elderly and people receiving cancer treatments — face a meaningful amount of risk. And the country’s medical system is at risk of being swamped.
Any kind of progress by the Biden administration, governors and other officials over the next few weeks is likely to help save lives.
The economy: U.S. consumer confidence rose this month as Americans shrugged off concerns about rising prices and COVID’-19’s highly contagious omicron variant. The Conference Board, a business research group, said Wednesday that its consumer confidence index — which takes into account consumers’ assessment of current conditions and their outlook for the future — rose to 115.8 in December, the highest reading since July. In November, it registered 111.9. Consumers’ view of current conditions dipped slightly, but their outlook for the next six months brightened. Their expectations for inflation actually dropped this month — perhaps because gasoline prices have fallen in recent weeks — even though the government reported that prices rose in November at the fastest year-over-year rate since 1982. It was the first reading taken since COVID-19’s omicron variant started spreading rapidly around the world.
From the Pasadena Star-News: Just as Americans and Europeans eagerly awaited their most normal holiday season in a couple of years, the omicron variant unleashed a fresh round of fear and uncertainty — for travelers, shoppers, party-goers and their economies as a whole.
The Rockettes canceled their Christmas show in New York. Some London restaurants emptied out as commuters avoid the downtown. Broadway shows canceled some performances. The National Hockey League suspended its games until after Christmas. Boston plans to require diners, revelers and shoppers to show proof of vaccination to enter restaurants, bars and stores.
A heightened sense of anxiety has begun to erode the willingness of some people and some businesses to carry on as usual in the face of the extraordinarily contagious omicron variant, which has fast become the dominant version of the virus in the United States.
Others, though, are still traveling, spending and congregating with other people as they normally do, though often with a cautious wait-and-see perspective. Holiday air travel remains robust. Many stores and restaurants are still enjoying solid sales. And omicron has yet to keep audiences away from movie theaters in significant numbers. This past weekend, record audiences across all demographics flocked to theaters for the new “Spider- Man” movie.
At the same time, no one knows yet what omicron will ultimately mean for the health of the Western economies, which have endured a wild ride of downturns and recoveries since early 2020.
Will omicron cause outbreaks at factories and ports, disrupt operations and worsen supply chain bottlenecks that have forced up prices and contributed to the hottest U.S. inflation in decades? Will it mean people will hunker down at home again and spend less on services — restaurant meals, concerts hotel stays — which could weaken the economy but potentially defuse inflationary pressures? Will return-to-office plans for white-collar workers be put on hold indefinitely, deepening the hit to many cities’ downtown businesses. Or will omicron prove a blip that scarcely slows what has become a surprisingly strong recovery from the short but intense pandemic recession?
Spooked by uncertainty and fear of the worst-case scenarios, stock markets around the world sold off for three days before rebounding Tuesday.
“We don’t know whether this is good or bad for growth or inflation in the medium term,’ said Megan Greene, global chief economist at the Kroll Institute. “We just don’t have enough data yet.’ Unable to assess its longer-term consequences, businesses, consumers and policymakers have struggled to respond to the omicron threat.
One fear now is that omicron infections will further disrupt manufacturing and shipping, worsen the supply chain backlogs and keep inflation simmering. It could also increase consumers’ already intensified demand for goods, which would magnify the supply shortages.
“If everybody is freaked out that going to a bar or restaurant is going to land them in a hospital, they may continue to buy goods,’ said Greene, the Kroll Institute economist. “So that could exacerbate the short-term trend and make inflation worse.’